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Why they can: Deron Williams facilitates a well-conceived offense that depends on movement, pinpoint passing, and physical confrontations. Plus, D-Will can create his own shots (both in the pivot and on the outskirts) and make enough of them to turn any ball game. Carlos Boozer is a tough customer in the paint and can also drop mid-range jumpers. Mehmet Okur's 3-pointers create enough room for Boozer to operate inside, and both of them are rebounding fools. Andrei Kirilenko runs around like a mad scientist, freeing himself for layups, blocking shots, making steals and rescuing loose balls. If AK-47 is also hitting his jumpers, then Utah's offense really fires on all cylinders. Matt Harpring scores inside and also on curls. Kyle Korver can hit 3s from never-never land. Overall, Utah's in-your-face-and-chest style of play is perfectly styled for the playoffs.
Why they can't: They commit too many turnovers, especially on the road. Kirilenko can be successfully bodied into marginality. Williams is the only player who can routinely create his own scoring opportunities. With all of their power, the Jazz lack a necessary degree of athleticism.
The path to glory: The Jazz should have little difficulty grounding the Rockets.
Why they can: Nobody's quite sure how the Yao-less Rockets have gotten this far. Tracy McGrady's shooting and passing? Shane Battier's lock-down defense? Luis Scola's hard-nosed play in the paint? Rafer Alston's creativity? Rick Adelman's fleet-footed and quick-handed defensive strategies? Somehow, though, it's the inspirational force of Dikembe Mutombo's presence that has kept the Rockets aloft.
Why they can't: T-Mac tends to be invisible too often, and doesn't put sufficient pressure on defenses to get himself to the foul line. Scola's lack of defense can't be disguised. Alston is injured, and while Bobby Jackson is more than an able replacement, he's not nearly as quick nor as explosive. Once Dikembe exhausts his limited PT, the Rockets have no sizeable big to plug the gaping hole in the middle.
Why they can: Shaq sets the best screens since the heyday of Wayne Embry, and he rolls to the hoop like a runaway train. More importantly, Shaq still commands a huge area in both lanes — and can still take advantage of straight-up defenders. Steve Nash and company can still scoot and shoot, but with Shaq and Grant Hill, Phoenix now has a viable half-court offense. With Shawn Marion gone, Amare Stoudemire has taken full advantage of the extra shots that now belong to him. Their defense is better than it's ever been at any point in Mike D'Antoni's reign, and if their offense doesn't rely as much on 3-balls, it's just about as potent. Nash's creativity and clutch shooting should never be underestimated.
Why they can't: Shaq can no longer explode for 25-plus points and therefore doesn't have to be two-timed. Shaq's rapidly diminishing lateral movement makes him helpless against any opponent who can turn, face and go. It's not inconceivable, then, that the Big Cactus can turn into the Big Mirage. While Nash plays acceptable team defense, he's also extremely vulnerable when offenses attack him directly. Raja Bell is the only dependable defender and he's always in foul trouble. Stoudemire's immaturity leads to numerous questionable decisions. The bench is extremely short, with Leandro Barbosa and the erratic Boris Diaw getting all the meaningful minutes. Overall, the Suns' defense still may not be championship quality.
The path to glory: The Suns are capable of vanquishing any opponent from here to, and including, the finals. That's why the Spurs-Suns matchup is the jewel of the first round.
Why they can: Jason Kidd gives them heart, confidence and on-the-money passes, and has adjusted his game to his teammates. Dirk Nowitzki can score a lot of points from a lot of different places and angles. Josh Howard is on the verge of becoming a superstar. Let Jason Terry go right, or let him get his feet set, and the ensuing shots will usually find the middle of the hole. Erick Dampier is a playoff-ready bruiser. Tyronn Lue can score. Brandon Bass is a powerful presence off the bench. When healthy, Jerry Stackhouse is a rugged scorer. Offense is the Mavs' game, and when they're riding high, they're awfully tough to beat.
Why they can't: Where J-Kidd's defense used to be top-notch, he's lost a step-and-a-half and can't keep up with the jet-set that play point guard in the West. Moreover, Kidd's shooting is highly suspect. There are no adequate bigs behind the foul-prone Dampier. Nowitzki and Terry have a long history of appling-up in the clutch. It's difficult for the Mavs to sustain their defensive intensity for a full 48 minutes.
The path to glory: Beating New Orleans should be cake, but that's about as far as these guys can go.
Why they can: George Karl is counting on divine intervention. Barring such a miracle, the Nuggets will go one and done.
Why they can't: No defense. Kenyon Martin is usually AWOL in critical games. No defense. A.I.'s gambles are more costly than they are productive. No defense. Carmelo Anthony is playing under the cloud of his recent arrest. No defense. Marcus Camby blocks shots but is an unreliable defender who also takes too make unwise shots. No defense. Eduardo Najera doesn't play enough. No defense. J. R. Smith can keep both teams in the game. No defense. This team lacks character and maturity. But above all they play no defense.
The path to glory: Will quickly hit a dead end in L.A.
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